Introduction to the ERQ System

In Australia there is popular belief among the football-following public that there are a number of deficiencies with the finals series formats currently in use by the AFL and NRL. The Evolving-Rank Qualification System was developed as an alternative to these formats, with the intention of removing the deficiencies found in these systems.

The system i propose does not rely on hard links between the matches of consecutive rounds, instead re-ranking the remaining teams at the end of each round, then matching up opposing teams based on the new rankings. This is considered the fairest possible system, as it takes into account the performance of each team relative to all others within the finals series, as well as each teams finishing position in the premiership table.

Other highlights of the system are: The Minor Premiers are guaranteed starters in Week 3 (Grand Final Qualifiers); Teams 2 and 3 are guaranteed starters in Week 2; Teams 1, 2, 3 and 4 are guaranteed at least one home game; There are only 7 teams in the system - ensuring that, typically, teams can only qualify if they have achieved a "winning" season; No team can be eliminated immediately following a week break in the finals; Each team will understand the value of a match prior to commencement of that match.

The Evolving-Rank Qualification System was initially designed following the rules below:
- If team A is ranked higher than B, and B higher than C, then if C defeats A, both B and C shall be re-ranked higher than A.
- If team D is ranked higher than E, and both teams win (or both lose), then D will still be ranked higher than E.
- The higher ranked a team, the lower ranked their opponents shall be.
- Home Ground Advantage is given to the higher ranked team, as a reward for success, unless fairness dictates otherwise.

Although these rules make "ideal" world assumptions, it is considered that a system designed upon these rules shall be the fairest system that can be in place.

The Qualification System has more recently been modified to ensure that there are no meaningless matches. In particular the system heavily relies upon the "Home Ground Advantage" factor in an attempt to minimise the possibility of meaningless matches.

Week 1 - Preliminary Finals

The 7 finalists are ranked in order of their final Premiership finishing positions, known as their Premiership Rankings (PR1-PR7).

The Minor Premiers (PR1) are awarded a bye in the first week. The next 3 highest ranked teams (PR2-PR4) are rewarded with home games against the 3 lowest ranked teams (PR5-PR7), with the highest ranked teams playing the lowest ranked teams (ie. PR2 v PR7, PR3 v PR6, and PR4 v PR5).

Preliminary Finals

Bye
PR1

Friday
PR2 @ Home vs PR7
(sudden death for PR7)

Saturday
PR3 @ Home vs PR6
(if PR7 wins, then sudden death for PR6)

Sunday
PR4 @ Home vs PR5
(if both PR7 & PR6 win, then sudden death for both teams)

Lowest Premiership Ranked Loser is Eliminated.

The lowest ranked loser will be eliminated. For PR7, a loss will result in sudden death. The schedule of matches ensures that PR4, PR5 and PR6 will know, prior to kick-off, whether a loss in this first match will result in elimination. Although the two highest ranked losers will progress to week 2, their rank for week 2 will be adjusted accordingly, making their path to the Grand Final more difficult.

Week 2 - Major Elimination Finals

The rankings for each team in week 2 evolves from their week 1 ranking, depending on week 1 match results. These Major Elimination Finals Rankings (MEFR1-6) are determined as follows:
- The first 4 MEF Rankings (MEFR1-4) are awarded to the 4 undefeated teams, in order of Premiership Rankings. Obviously MEFR1 will be the Minor Premiers, as they will be undefeated due to the bye in week 1.
- The final 2 MEF Rankings (MEFR5-6) are taken by the progressing defeated teams, in order of Premiership Rankings.

The two highest ranked teams, MEFR1 and MEFR2, are rewarded with home games against the week 1 progressing losers (MEFR6 and MEFR5 respectively). As both MEFR3 and MEFR4 are undefeated, they play each other at a neutral venue. This venue is to be mutually agreed by participating teams, otherwise the venue is chosen by the governing body.

Major Elimination Finals

Friday
MEFR1 @ Home vs MEFR6
(sudden death match for MEFR6)

Saturday
MEFR2 @ Home vs MEFR5
(sudden death match for MEFR5, and if MEFR1 loses, also sudden death match for MEFR2)

Sunday
MEFR3 vs MEFR4 at neutral venue
(if either MEFR1 or MEFR2 loses, then match becomes sudden death)

Lowest 2 MEF Ranked Losers are Eliminated.

After the week 2 matches are completed, the two lowest MEF ranked losers will be eliminated. There will be only one "lucky loser" that will progress, that being the highest MEF Ranked Loser. If MEFR1, the Minor Premiers, lose in the first match, then the remaining matches become elimination finals for all teams involved. Likewise, the third match will become an elimination match if MEFR2 loses in the second match of the round. For MEFR5 and MEFR6, both of whom were first week losers, a loss will always result in sudden death. To promote fair play, the "lucky loser" who progresses to week 3 will play their next match at their opponents home ground, regardless of their week 3 ranking.

Week 3 - Qualifying Finals

The rankings for each team in week 3 evolves from their previous rankings, depending on the results throughout the finals series. The Qualifying Finals Rankings (QFR1-4) are determined as follows:
- The highest QF Rankings are awarded to the undefeated teams over weeks 1 and 2, in order of Premiership Rankings.
- The final QF Rankings are taken by the teams that have experienced a defeat in weeks 1 or 2, in order of Premiership Rankings.

QFR1 is rewarded with a choice of HOME venue, against QFR4. The other match will be between QFR2 and QFR3. The venue will be decided as follows:
- If either QFR2 or QFR3 is the "lucky loser" from week 2, then this team is penalised by playing the Qualifying Finals match at their opponents chosen Home venue.
- Otherwise, if QFR3 has been defeated in the finals (weeks 1 or 2), then QFR2 is rewarded with their choice of HOME venue.
- Otherwise, if QFR3 is undefeated, the match will be played at a neutral venue. This venue is to be mutually agreed by participating teams, otherwise the venue is chosen by the governing body.

Qualifying Finals

Friday
QFR1 @ Home vs QFR4

Saturday
QFR2/3 vs QFR3/2
(venue decided by guidelines described above)

The two losers are eliminated.

Week 4 - Grand Final

The two victors from week 3 will qualify for the Grand Final. The highest Premiership Ranked team has first choice of colours.

Grand Final

Saturday/Sunday
QF Victor 1 vs QF Victor 2

Objectives of a New Finals System

Designing a fair system is not easy. Personally i have made several failed attempts at inventing a system which did not exhibit the same deficiencies found with the current systems, without introducing further weaknesses. Any system envisaged was analysed against the following objectives:

1. Reward teams for their Premiership finishing positions, ensuring the path to the Grand Final is incrementally more difficult for lower ranked teams.

2. Thoroughly reward the Minor Premiers for their accomplishment. Preferably this reward is one that is only granted to the Minor Premiers alone.

3. Reduce the number of teams that qualify for the finals, making the accomplishment of making the finals a greater measure of success.

4. Preferably minimise any reduction in the number of Finals matches, whilst maintaining a final series period of 4 weeks.

5. Ensure there are no meaningless games. Reward Winners. Penalise Losers. The system should ensure teams do not take games lightly, otherwise others may be unfairly affected.

6. Reward all top teams with home games, not just those that happen to be the beneficiaries of the "quirkiness" of the particular system being implemented.

7. If teams are rewarded with a week off, ensure this team can not be eliminated the following week. This ensures that the week break can not be blamed if a team under-performs in an elimination match.

8. Ensure each team understands the consequences of losing PRIOR to kick-off, avoiding "wait and hope" situations.

ERQ - The Objectives Met

1. The Evolving-Rank Qualification System always ensures that the rank of the opponent that a team must face is inversely proportional to the teams own rank amongst those remaining in the competition. Also, the higher a team is ranked, the more likely it is that the team will have a home match for a particular round. Finally, the format of the system ensures that the top 3 ranked teams can not be eliminated before week 2.
2. The Minor Premiers are justly rewarded for their seasons efforts with a bye in the first week of the finals, with their first match against the lowest ranked progressing loser in the second week, and given a guarantee that they can not be eliminated before week 3.
3. The Evolving-Rank Qualification System is a 7 Team Finals System. This promotes a competition whereby only those teams that (typically) have a winning season record are rewarded for their performances (assumes 14+ teams in competition).
4. The number of finals games will be 9, equal to that of the current NRL and AFL finals systems, whilst maintaining a finals series period of 4 weeks.
5. After week 1 of the finals, undefeated teams greatly increase their likelihood of a home game in future fixtures, or at the very least, avoid playing an away game. Losers are always penalised, either by being eliminated, or having to play an away game at a highly ranked opponents home ground.
6. The four highest ranked premiership teams are guaranteed a home final. Lower ranked teams can win the right for Home games by remaining undefeated, upsetting Higher ranked opponents at their opponents' home ground.
7. Only the Minor Premiers get a week off, which takes place in the first week. They can not be eliminated until the third week. Note: It is recommended that if a competition has an odd number of teams, and thus require one team to have a bye each week of the home and away series, that the team finishing last in the previous season is given the bye in the last round of the next season. This reduces the likelihood that a team finishing first will have two bye's in a row.
8. The schedule of matches for each round of the Evolving-Rank Qualification System ensures that a team knows long before the commencement of a match whether a loss will result in elimination from the competition.

Known Limitations

The assumption that a team playing at Home will always have an advantage is not always a safe assumption, as occasionally a team's potential opponents may share the same Home ground. However this is not different to the situations encountered with the currently used Finals Systems. It must also be noted that, for most scenarios envisaged, the advantage of home ground is not the only benefit of winning a match, and that the possibility of also playing a lower ranked team should also provide reward for the victors.

The possibility exists that Premiership Ranked Team 2 can be eliminated in week 2, despite winning in week 1. However the point must be made that week 2 is meant to be "Major Elimination Finals", and defeating Premiership Ranked Team 6 in week 1 is hardly sufficient to claim "rights" to progress to week 3. In fact a win in week 1 rewards this team with the greatest advantage possible (other than that given to the Minor Premiers), having been given home ground advantage over a team which was defeated in week 1. As a final point, the team will have prior knowledge to the consequences of losing, should such a situation arise, and thus be given opportunity to "rise to the occasion" for the sudden death match.

In many peoples eyes, a good system is one which no two teams can play each other twice in the finals series prior to the Grand Final. However i must disagree with this ideology, as forcing such a condition upon a system only weakens the system in many other ways. The Evolving-Rank Qualification System attempts to ensure fairness at all times, and forcing this condition upon it would mean that certain teams would need to be treated unfairly in an effort to support this condition. Also, it is a feature of the system that no teams can play each other in consecutive weeks, it is only after twice re-ranking that opponents in week 1 may yet again face each other in the Grand Final Qualifier. Finally, it is my view that rematches often provide even greater interest, particularly if the initial match was keenly contested.